UAE

And the Winner Is … Azerbaijan

United Nations policy of sharing climate conferences among the world’s regions means next year’s meeting will be held in another petrostate. Politics trumps climate policy — again.

Saturday’s “Global Day of Action,” in which climate campaigners from around the world staged demonstrations at an already fractious CoP28 meeting in the UAE, produced yet another disconnect. Next year’s climate conference — or what’s left of climate anyway — will be hosted by the unitary semi-presidential Republic of Azerbaijan, a petrostate rich in oil and gas with many, many pipelines.

So much for the idea of rolling back the world’s reliance on emissions-causing fossil fuels, let alone phasing fossil fuels out entirely.

The Southern Gas Corridor connects Azerbaijan’s vast Shah Deniz gas field to continental Europe, reducing the EU’s dependence on Russian gas — making it one of the most active regions in the world for oil exploration and development. Hoopla!

If you’re wondering how a petrostate ended up hosting the UN’s most high-profile conference on the environment — for the second year in a row — blame war.

UN policy means that 2024 is Eastern Europe’s turn to take over the rotating presidency. The decision has to be unanimous. In theory, that’s good policy for a global organization that claims to represent every region of the world, though in practice it often results in decisions that satisfy no one. Russia vetoed EU countries from hosting — don’t cry for me, Ukraine — and Armenia initially blocked Azerbaijan’s bid. Azerbaijan seized the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in September after more than 30 years of simmering tensions, forcing some 120,000 ethnic Armenians to flee their homes in what Foreign Policy magazine called “one of the starkest examples of forced displacement in the 21st century.” This was about four weeks before the conflagration in Gaza, and follows on the heels of Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine, which has stalled in the bloodiest stalemated conflict in Europe since the Second World War.

Late last week, in a desperate bid to forge a peace deal, Armenia — hopelessly overmatched militarily against Azerbaijan — withdrew its own bid to host CoP29 and agreed to support its tormentor. Money talks. The reality is that few countries in Eastern Europe are able to stump up the finances and facilities needed to host such a large conference, and Russia’s threatened veto against EU countries ruled out benign candidates like the democratic republic of Slovenia — it’s governed by a democratically elected prime minister as the head of government and a democratically elected president as head of state!

Never mind that, by most accounts, Slovenia — a mostly mountainous and forested country bordered by Italy to the west, Austria to the north, Hungary to the northeast, Croatia to the south and the Adriatic Sea to the southwest — would have made an ideal host for a global climate conference.

What the hell had this got to do with the climate crisis, you might well ask. Welcome to realpolitik in the 21st century.

“Choosing Azerbaijan as a host will do little to quell protests from climate (campaigners) that (global climate conferences) have been … captured by fossil fuel interests,” The Guardian reported Saturday. “Much like this year’s host, the country of 10 million people on the border of Eastern Europe and Western Asia relies heavily on digging up fuels that heat the planet when burned.

“Oil and gas production accounted for nearly half of the country’s GDP and over 92.5% of its export revenue last year, according to the US government’s International Trade Administration.”

Alrighty then!

Business as usual, in other words.

EPA


Where de Money?

World leaders at the CoP28 climate summit in Dubai have agreed in principle to a global fund to help struggling countries deal with the effects of climate change. But what does that mean in real terms?

In Start the Revolution Without Me, Bud Yorkin’s 1970 parody of Alexander Dumas’ historical classic The Corsican Brothers, Gene Wilder and Donald Sutherland play identical twins who are accidentally switched at birth on the eve of the French Revolution.

One set of twins is born to a family of peasants, the other to aristocrats.

They grow up in different worlds, one hard-scrabble and beset by poverty, the other a world of sophistication and plenty.

Sutherland grows up to become the haughty, sophisticated Pierre DeSisi and the somewhat more intellectually challenged Charles Coupé; Wilder grows up to become the haughty, aristocratic Phillipe DeSisi and the excitable, rough-around-the-edges Claude Coupé.

When the revolution comes to a head — sorry — both sets of twins find themselves mistaken again, but this time as adults. A running gag involves the dastardly Versailles villain Count du Monet, who Claude calls “Count de Money!” as an exasperated Pierre tries to correct his pronunciation with the more cultured — and accurate — “Du Moan-ay, Du Moan-ay.”

One of the criticisms of the annual United Nations CoP climate talks over the years is that they’ve been full of financial promises from Western nations to the developing countries, that part of the world most affected by climate breakdown caused by carbon emissions from the excessive burning of fossil fuels, without actually producing the money.

That looked to change earlier this week at CoP28 when world leaders at the UN climate summit in Dubai approved a disaster fund to help low-lying tropical island states and coastal regions vulnerable to flooding from rapidly rising sea levels.

Conference president Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, whose day job is the  UAE’s Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology — he heads the UAE’s national oil company and has control of his country’s vast oil reserves — says world leaders need to “proactively engage” fossil fuel companies as a keystone part of any solution to climate challenges.

This matters because, like it or not, oil companies are where the money is. Al-Jaber described the agreement as a “positive signal of momentum” in his address at Thursday’s opening ceremony, but not everyone is convinced.

The UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, took a more cautious position, noting that there must be a terminal decline to the fossil fuel era if the world is to stop “our own terminal decline.”

In a speech earlier this year at the United Nations Security Council’s first-ever meeting on the threat to international peace and security from rising sea levels, UN Secretary-General António Guterres declared that sea levels will rise significantly even if global warming is “miraculously” limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the elusive international goal. Guterres warned the Earth is more likely on a path to warming that amounts to “a death sentence” for countries vulnerable to that rise, including many small island nations.

Guterres added that the threat is not just limited to low-lying island states in the tropics: some of the world’s largest cities are also likely to be affected. “mega-cities on every continent … including Cairo, Lagos, Maputo, Bangkok, Dhaka, Jakarta, Mumbai, Shanghai, Copenhagen, London, Los Angeles, New York, Buenos Aires and Santiago.”

More than 70,000 delegates are attending the CoP28 climate talks, among them world leaders of France, Japan, the UK and Brazil, as well as activists, lobbyists and prominent public figures such as Bill Gates and King Charles III.

The leaders of the world’s largest emitters of carbon emissions, the US and China, have elected not to attend, however.

So far, nations at CoP28 have formally approved the implementation of a “loss and damage” fund to compensate “climate-vulnerable” countries — this, after months of hard-fought negotiations over how the fund will work. The UAE sees itself as a bridge between the rich developed nations most responsible for historic emissions and the rest of the world, which has contributed less to global warming but suffers its worst consequences.

While talk of a climate fund is encouraging, island states most likely to be affected in the short term — Tuvalu and Vanuatu, to name just two — risk being completely submerged by rising sea levels water by the end of the century. Tuvalu and Vanuatu, together with the Maldives, Kiribati, the Bahamas, Antigua, Palau, Barbuda and St. Lucia, tona me just a few,  can be forgiven for asking, Where de money?


Crisis, What Crisis

Where to hold a global conference about the climate crisis? Why, Dubai of course

The Digital Artist/Pixabay

A  petrostate hosting a climate conference: Brilliant!

It sounds like a Monty Python sketch, as dreamed up by Terry Gilliam, newly wakened from a fever dream, and hosted by Spiny Norman, the giant hedgehog.

Almost everything about CoP28, underway in Dubai through Dec.12th, is enough to fry the brain, from the name — “CoP” stands for “Convention of the Parties,” a headline grabber if ever there were one — to the inconvenient truth that the conference’s president, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, also happens to be the CEO of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil firm.

Don’t look so doubtful! It’s a coincidence, and coincidence only. What’s the matter with you?

As extinction events go, debating the End of Days in the glass towers of Dubai, a gleaming metropolis on the Persian Gulf where, rightly speaking, there shouldn’t even be a town, let alone one of the shinest cities on the planet, deserves top marks for style, if not substance.

It’s hard to go out on a limb and argue the benefits of keeping carbon emissions within a limit that will hold temperature to within the 1.5°C increase agreed to at the 2015 Paris Agreement if that limb is no longer attached to a living, breathing tree.

Most scientists worth their 250 grams of salt now say we’ll be lucky if we can keep world temperatures within 3.0°C of the ideal. In the same way those same scientists admit their original climate projections, criticized at the time for being overly pessimistic and alarmist, were too conservative.

Never mind Al Gore. Global heating is happening at a faster rate than even the most dire predictions in 2015. That’s especially evident in the polar regions, where ice melt is accelerating at a pace not seen since the last mass extinction. The day may yet come when even 3° seems mild. The question is no longer if, but when.

Against this backdrop, an opinion piece by climate campaigner Vanessa Nakate for Al-Jazeera, posted this past summer, hit any number of sore points, all the more so as Nakate, from Uganda, has become the public face for the climate campaign across the developing world, in the same way Greta Thunberg, a close friend, has raised consciousness across the northern hemisphere.

“There is a big difference between national leaders and global leaders,” Nakate wrote. “The former push national interests on the global stage, often using the rhetoric of global solutions. The latter carry a vision that extends beyond personal interests, election cycles or profit margins to do the best for humanity.”

The world will have to heat a lot more before Thunberg’s native Sweden is affected to the point where it becomes unlivable; Uganda, on the equator, is already on the way there.

Global ice melt may be easiest to spot in the polar regions, but it’s across the equatorial tropics that climate change’s effects will be felt first.

With that as a backdrop, it’s hard not to be skeptical of the idea that the head of a global oil company will drive CoP28 towerd an outcome that will give the world hope in the looming shadow of a mass extinction.

Nakate: “The United Nations has made it clear that the world needs to cut its emissions by 45 percent by 2030 to have a chance at staying under the 1.5C warming threshold. Currently, carbon capture and storage technology is highly expensive and simply does not exist at the necessary scale to make even a scratch on that target. We do not have time for fairytale solutions designed to save the oil and gas industry.

“UN Secretary-General António Guterres has called investing in new fossil fuel projects ‘moral and economic madness.’ The International Energy Agency says we cannot afford to put in any new finance for coal, oil or gas if we are to meet net-zero targets; instead, we need a massive deployment of renewable energy. The science is clear and the goal is clear, but we are still missing the global leadership to take us there.

“We can no longer prevent the climate crisis, but every fraction of a degree of further warming will make heatwaves more intense, droughts more pro- longed and storms more powerful.

“Every year that passes without a rapid transformation of our economies away from fossil fuels means more will be lost to the climate crisis.”

The truth is no longer just inconvenient. It’s beginning to hurt.

Monty Pyrthon