global heating

Deal! Or No Deal?

An 11th-hour deal has been struck at the CoP28 climate talks — but what kind of deal? The devil’s in the details, as always.

It’s being labelled “the UAE consensus,” but those are not the kind of words to stir hope and joy in the climate science community.

On the face of it, the 11th hour — literally, midnight Pacific Time — agreement to “transition away” from fossil fuels sounds like, if not the end result exactly, a step in the right direction.

What the EU has labelled “the beginning of the end of fossil fuels” is also being singled out by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) as an “improvement,” but with a “litany of loopholes.”

Climate justice campaigners are, by and large, disappointed with the wording, which they say can — and probably will — stand in the way of implementation.

Was it ever thus.

The reaction from small island countries like Tuvalu, Vanuatu and Kiribati is telling because they are the nation states most vulnerable to the impacts of the climate crisis in the immediate term, as opposed to “somewhere in the future,” say, 2050, when — in theory — the world will have cut greenhouse gas emissions enough to limit global heating to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

That was already a tall order as the science tells us that the world is already at 1.7°C ahead of pre-industrial levels. Rapid ice melt in the polar regions and glaciers in more temperate climes might not seem evident right now in London, New York and Washington D.C., but it is an existential issue in Tonga, Micronesia and the Maldives, among 33 other member states.

The deal encourages the world’s nations to embark on a de facto phasing out of fossil fuels, but developing countries still need billions of dollars to help them transition away from coal, oil and gas. The G7 nations, fast-growing economies like those in China and India, and the wealthy oil sheikhdoms of the Arabian Gulf are not compelled, let alone required, to move as quickly as the climate science urges. The US has pledged just $20 million in new finance to help emerging nations, and even that amount — paltry considering the US is also the world’s most active producer of oil and gas — and even that is likely to be rolled back when political conservatives regain power in the US White House and Congress, as they are likely to do next November, with Canada to follow in 2025.

China has already vowed to expand coal production, and India will face no penalty for following suit. Russia, which worked hard behind the scenes to forestall any kind of deal, including this one, will face little opposition next year, when the UN’s climate conference will be held in Azerbaijan, an oil producer and more or less a client state of the oil and gas-producing Putinocracy.

There is a silver lining to all this, if silver is the right word exactly. Timing, as always, is a factor. Perhaps shamed by the optics of handing the world’s biggest, most important climate conference to Azerbaijan in 2024, the following year’s conference will be held in Brazil. And not just Brazil, but in the heart of the Amazon rainforest, the symbol of nature’s last stand against global heating.

Let’s hope it’s still there.

Climate Talks Stall

An ancient sea monster’s massive skull has been found in seaside cliffs in Britain, stunning palaeontologists — an appropriate metaphor as any for the impasse at the CoP28 climate talks.

EPA

A stunning 6-foot-long skull of a 150 million-year-old carnivorous marine reptile has been chiselled out from a cliff along southern England’s Jurassic Coast in what scientists are calling a one-of-a-kind find. The pliosaur skull was discovered after pieces of it started to fall from an English cliff onto a beach. The skull, unique because it’s complete, unusual fossils of its kind, was extracted from the cliff in Dorset this past weekend using ropes and a makeshift stretcher.

This is a timely — and appropriate! — metaphor for the UN climate talks in Dubai, which were supposed to end today in a ceremony of back-slapping and mutual celebration but which are instead mired in hostility and acrimony. This is what the UN gets for staging a conversation about phasing out fossil fuels — a primary driver of global heating — in an oil sheikdom on the Arabian peninsular, where Big Oil is not just a way of doing business: It’s practically a religion.

And so it goes.

First the facts, as of 11:34 GMT.

  • More countries have expressed anger over the leaked draft text of the CoP28 final agreement. It says nothing, promises nothing, and delivers nothing. It is, however, very long, which has slowed down the process of reading between the lines to find something — anything — worth talking about. So far, the paralysis of analysis has drifted beyond 48 hours.

• The UK’s climate minister — an oxymoron if ever there was one — has left the climate conference, not so much in a ceremonial parade of celebration as sneaking out in the middle of the night, metaphorically speaking, hoping that no one would notice. They have. “(Climate minister) Graham Stuart flying home in the middle of critical negotiations tells you everything you need to know about this Conservative government,” Ed Miliband, Gordon Brown’s climate change minister at Copenhagen in 2009 and a regular at climate summits ever since, told reporters. “They are weak, divided and chaotic … They can’t stand up and fight for lower energy bills for the British people, can’t stand up and fight for investment into our country, and they can’t stand up and fight to provide climate leadership.” Other than that, though, they’re great.

  • Climate campaigners warned that details of the historic loss-and-damage agreement from the first day of the summit are still lacking — nearly two weeks later. Oh, well, what’s the hurry? It’s not as if the climate crisis is, well, a crisis.

Indigenous groups and climate activists from the global south have once again called out the hypocrisy of “rich nations” over their demand that fossil fuels be phased out globally — while increasing production at home.

Where’s Kurt Vonnegut when you need him?

The talks continue — if, strictly speaking, they can no longer be called talks anymore .

Science Photo Library

Yes, But Is That Hot Dog Halal?

Judging from early media reports, the CoP 28 climate conference in Dubai is as much about optics as substance. Now about that $6 cup of coffee…

Press Association/PA

If you’re like me and your visual cortex has been conditioned over time to react to an image in real-time before reading the caption, you could be forgiven for thinking the picture above has something to do with Unilever.

Since the photo accompanies a story about the CoP28 climate conference underway in Dubai, you can be forgiven for thinking that Unilever, the world’s largest producer of soap that distributes a wide range of consumer products to more than 190 countries, has run afoul of moral and ethical guidelines that govern locally sourced, enviro-friendly consumer goods.

But no, it has nothing to do with that.

Rather, it’s a speech by Bank of America’s CEO during a reception this past week at the annual UN climate conference.

This year, the conference is being staged in a gleaming city of glass towers on the edge of the vast Arabian sand sea.

Yes, it has been hot there — 30°C, or 86°F — but do keep in mind that November to April is reportedly the best time to visit Dubai, “during the winter months.”

Irony is never in short supply at these get-togethers, and so far, just 72 hours in, CoP28 has not disappointed.

Staging a global climate conference in an oil kingdom during a time of unprecedented temperature rises — and melting ice caps — is one thing, but news reports fixating on where to go and what to eat in Dubai during a global climate conference linking 70,000 delegates take the frisson to a whole new level.

Media communication in our modern-day wired world is all about optics, after all.

Style is everything, and substance just has to take its chances. Irony — loosely defined as language that says one thing but means the opposite — abounds.

And so we have news stories about $6 coffees (£4.75) — more expensive than New York! — and reports of delegates packing boxed lunches and Thermoses to beat the cost of doing business in one of the priciest cities on the planet.

After all, it’s hard to grow coffee in the Empty Quarter, the largest continuous body of sand in the world, where temperatures can climb as high as 52°C (125.6°F) on a warm summer’s day.

Scouring the area for locally sourced food can only go so far in the middle of a sand sea.

Green-minded delegates insist on vegan, eco-friendly food — CoP24 in Poland was roundly criticized for being a sausage fest, literally — but as the Guardian reported this past week, carnivores aren’t being left out entirely in Dubai. The chicken sausage rolls are said to be halal, too; local customs have to count for something.

Then there are the news stories about eco-fashions on display. Delegates, diplomats and climate campaigners from more than 180 countries — almost as many as Unilever distributes to — reputedly sport everything from Amazonian headdresses and West African wax prints to Pacific island floral garlands and Mayan huipils.

Then there is the ever-present presence of the fossil fuel industry — fitting for a climate conference in a petrostate with one of the world’s largest sand seas on one side and the Persian Gulf on the other. As Guardian environment editor Damian Carrington reported Thursday, when one delegate opened her hotel room curtains in the morning, she was greeted by the world’s largest gas power-producing facility.

“‘Fitting,’ Carrington reported her as saying, ‘I am going to stare at this through the haze of pollution for two weeks.’”

Heading to the conference centre on the metro — public transportation! — “at least 50 tall industrial smokestacks mark the way,” Carrington noted.

Gas flaring is an added bonus. It’s part of the entertainment.

Some delegates arriving at CoP28, Carrington observed, are more concerned about what’s outside the Expo City conference centre, namely the air quality.

“A haze settled over Dubai on Tuesday and Wednesday,” Carrington reported, “shrouding its vertiginous buildings and bringing air pollution unhealthy to sensitive groups, according to IQAir, an air monitoring service.

“The air quality improved a little on Thursday, the opening day of CoP28, but was still four times worse than guideline levels set by the World Health Organization.”

Now that’s irony for you.

The Sustainable Agency